城市化背景下重庆市水生态系统服务价值评估及其影响因子分析

Valuing the Water Ecosystem Service and Analyzing Its Impact Factors in Chongqing City Under the Background of Urbanization

为分析城市化背景下水生态系统服务价值的时序变化特征及其影响因素,在重庆市水生态系统服务价值演变特征的基础上,利用Person相关性分析得出主要影响因子,进一步对重庆市2001—2015年水生态系统服务价值的主要影响因子进行了回归分析。结果表明:重庆市15年来水生态系统服务价值呈波动增长态势,且以水生态产品供给、调蓄和污染物降解的价值量为主,其价值量年均比重达66.44%;同时水生态调蓄价值量增长了483.01亿元,比重增加至41.06%,成为水生态系统中价值量最大的服务类型,而水生态文化景观价值比重最小,年均增长率仅有2.36%。另外,重庆市水生态系统服务价值关键影响因子为常住人口数、城市化水平、污水排放量、人均GDP、植被覆盖率、生态需水量,且与水生态产品供给、水生态调蓄、水生态系统维持、水生态文化景观价值均存在显著正相关(R^2均值为0.74),说明各回归模型的拟合度较高,各因子对水生态系统服务的影响显著。上述研究不仅为水生态系统服务价值的影响机制分析奠定了基础,也为区域性水生态系统规划、开发利用与保护提供了决策参考。

In order to analyze the temporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of water ecosystem service value under the urbanization background,we use Person correlation analysis to obtain the main influencing factors,and further make a regression analysis on the main influencing factors of water ecosystem service on the basis of the evolution characteristics of service value of water ecosystem in Chongqing City from 2001 to 2015.The results showed that the value of water ecosystem services in Chongqing City had the fluctuating growth trend in the past 15 years,and the value of water ecosystem product supply,regulation and pollutant degradation was the main value,accounting for 66.44%of an average annual value;at the same time,the value of water ecological regulation and storage increased by 48.301 billion yuan,the proportion increased to 41.06%;it became the most valuable service type in the water ecosystem,while the value of water ecological cultural was the smallest,with an average annual growth rate of only 2.36%.In addition,the key influencing factors of water ecosystem service value in Chongqing City were the permanent population,urbanization level,sewage discharge,per capita GDP,vegetation coverage,ecological water demand,and there are significant positive correlations with water ecological product supply,water ecological regulation and storage,water ecological maintenance,water ecological cultural service value(the mean R^2 value was 0.74).The results showed that the fitting degree of each regression model was high,and the influence of each factor on the water ecosystem services was significant.These studies not only lay a foundation for the analysis of the impact mechanism of water ecosystem service value,but also provide the decision-making reference for regional water ecosystem planning,development,utilization and protection.