1956-2017年黄河干流径流量时空变化新特征

New Characteristics of Temporal and Spatial Changes of Runoff in the Mainstream of Yellow River from 1956 to 2017

河川径流是组成水资源的重要部分,同时也是区域水资源开发利用的基础。为了探究整个黄河流域径流量时空变化新特征,基于黄河干流9个主要控制水文站(唐乃亥、兰州、河口镇、龙门、潼关、花园口、高村、艾山和利津站)的实测径流量资料,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、Pettitt突变检验和距平累积等方法,研究了1956—2017年黄河干流径流量时空变化规律。结果表明:黄河上、中、下游年径流量整体呈逐年减少趋势,区间年径流量减少的倾向率分别为-20.16亿m^3/10 a,-30.23亿m^3/10 a,-16.98亿m^3/10 a。上、中、下游年径流量发生突变的临界年份分别为1986年、1990年(1968年)、1976年(2002年和2010年)。黄河干流径流量大致经历了丰水期、平水期和枯水期3个阶段的变化。上游唐乃亥站的年均径流量无长期变化趋势,而其余水文站的年径流量均呈现显著下降趋势,下降幅度基本沿程增加。年径流量临界年份除了唐乃亥站,其余站点主要集中在1985年、1990年。黄河干流9个主要控制站不同年代平均径流量沿程分布特征基本一致,表现为先增加至花园口站达到最大值随后下降趋势,且代际间表现为逐阶段波动下降趋势。

Runoff is the important resource and basis for the utilization of regional water resources.Based on the data of yearly runoff of nine hydrological stations from 1956 to 2017,in order to explore the new characteristics of spatial and temporal changes of runoff in the Yellow River Basin,we used modern statistical analysis such as Mann-Kendall test,Pettitt mutation test,anomaly accumulation,to reveal the temporal and spatial variation of runoff.The results showed that the runoff of the upper,middle and lower reaches exhibited a significant decreasing trend with its propensity rates of-2.016 billion m^3/decade,-3.023 billion m^3/decade,-1.698 billion m^3/decade,and its critical years are 1986,1990(1968),1976(2002,2010);apparent periodicities can be observed in the variation of annual runoff.The runoff discharge shows the significant decreasing trend at main hydrological stations with exception of the Tangnaihai station,the decline level increases along the river from upper to lower reaches.The critical years of annual runoff mainly concentrated in 1985 and 1990 except Tangnaihai station.The distribution characteristics of the average runoff along the nine stations were basically the same,which performed increasing first and then decreasing.The inter-generational variation gradually increased,and the maximum value appeared at Huayuankou station.