新疆绿洲经济协调发展的系统动力学仿真

The System Dynamics Simulation for the Coordinated Development of Xinjiang Oasis Economy

针对新疆绿洲经济在"十二五"期间呈现出的某些不协调状态,为解决环境保护与经济发展之间的矛盾,让新疆的绿洲经济得到更加优质的发展,构建了绿洲经济协调发展的系统动力学模型,模型主要包括经济、人口、环境、水资源四个子系统。在系统模型中,通过调控模型中的关键变量,依据模型的正负反馈机制进行影响分析,再根据新疆绿洲经济发展趋势和相关政策文件设定不同的路径方案,对比分析得出最优发展路径,为新疆未来的绿洲经济协调发展规划提供参考。

In view of some non-harmonious state in Xinjiang oasis economy during the 'twelfth five-year', in order to solve the contradictions between environmental protection and economic development and better the oasis of Xinjiang economic development, I construct the system dynamics model of the coordinated economic development, which mainly includes the economy, population, environment, and water resources. In the system model, by regulating the key variables in the model, according to the impact analysis of the positive and negative feedback mechanism of model and the development trend of the Xinjiang oasis, I set different path plan and related policy documents as the optimal path for the Xinjiang oasis coordinated economic development plan to provide references for the future.