河南省碳排放与产业结构关联性研究分析

Correlation Analysis of Carbon Emission and Industrial Structure in Henan Province

党的十九大报告为国家未来发展指明新的方向,发展经济不能以牺牲环境为代价,中国将继续坚定履行《巴黎协定》承诺,在2030年使二氧化碳的排放达到峰值,2030年国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降60%～65%。研究产业结构对我国碳排放产生的影响,对寻找减排途径,实现减排目标具有重要意义。文章使用灰色关联模型对河南省三次产业结构和碳排放进行关联性分析,结果表明第二产业和碳排放的关联度最大。进一步对第二产业内部结构和工业碳排放总量进行关联性分析,测算得工业内部中有一部分行业和碳排放之间的显著的关联性。最后在进行产业结构调整时,要同时注意减排和发展两个因素。

The 19 th national congress of the Communist Party of China sets the new direction for future development of the country. Economic development cannot be done at the expense of the environment. China will continue implement its commitment under the Paris Agreement to achieve peak carbon dioxide emission by 2030, and reduce carbon dioxide emission by 60%~65% from 2005. Studying the impact of industrial structure on China’s carbon emissions is of great significance to finding ways to reduce emissions and to achieving the emission reduction targets. This paper uses the gray relational model to analyze the correlation between the three industrial structures and carbon emissions in Henan Province. The results show that the secondary industry has the highest correlation with carbon emissions. Further analysis of the correlation between the internal structure of the secondary industry and the total amount of industrial carbon emissions shows that there is a significant correlation between some industries and carbon emissions in the industrial interior. Finally, in the process of industrial restructuring, we must pay attention to both emission reduction and development.