中国农业化肥施用量增长原因分解及其削减潜力分析

Analysis on the Reasons for Increase of Agricultural Chemical Fertilizer in China and the Potential of Reducing It

改革开放以来,中国农业经济取得了巨大增长,但农业化肥过度施用给农业的可持续发展带来了严重挑战,理清造成农业化肥施用量增长的根源,有助于制定相应措施实现农业化肥"减量化"目标。文章利用指标分解法分析了中国农业化肥施用量的增长原因,并探究了农业化肥施用量的削减潜力。结果显示:(1)单位面积化肥施用量增加是引起我国农业化肥施用量增长的主要原因,其贡献率高达67.5%;而播种面积扩张、作物种植结构变化的贡献率依次为28.9%和0.7%;(2)我国农业化肥施用量存在巨大的削减潜力,降低单位面积化肥施用量、耕地轮作休耕均能降低农业化肥施用量。最后,基于研究结论提出相关措施建议以降低我国农业化肥施用量。

Since China’s reform and opening up, the agricultural economy has achieved tremendous growth, but the overuse of agricultural fertilizers poses serious challenges to the sustainable development of agriculture, sorting out the causes of the increase in the amount of agricultural chemical fertilizers will help to formulate corresponding measures to achieve the goal of'reduction' of agricultural chemical fertilizers. This article analyzes the reasons for the increase of the amount of agricultural chemical fertilizers in China, by using the index decomposition method and explores the reduction potential of the amount of agricultural chemical fertilizers. The results show that: First, The increase in fertilizer application per unit area is the main reason for the increase in the amount of agricultural chemical fertilizers in China. Its contribution rate is as high as 67.5%,while the contribution rate of planting area expansion and crop planting structure changes is successively 28.9% and 0.7%.Second, there is a huge potential for reduction in the amount of agricultural chemical fertilizers used in China. Decreasing the amount of chemical fertilizers per unit area and the fallow cultivation of cultivated land can all reduce the amount of agricultural chemical fertilizers. At last, based on the research conclusions of this paper, relevant measures and suggestions are proposed for reducing the amount of agricultural chemical fertilizers in China.