江西省碳排放影响因素研究——基于LMDI分解法

Research on the Factors Affecting Carbon Emissions in Jiangxi Province: Based on LMDI Method

文章运用LMDI的分解方法将碳排放量增量分解成碳排放效率效应、能源消耗强度效应、产业结构效应与经济效率效应,并且综合考虑产业部门的碳排放和居民消费碳排放。分析结果显示:2012—2016年产业部门的能源消费强度效应和产业结构效应是促使江西省碳排放减少的主要驱动因素,经济规模效率和碳排放效率效应也对减排有一定促进作用,而居民消费的能源消费强度效应为增加碳排放。所以江西省要发展低碳经济、打造"江西样板"需要结合江西发展现状从优化产业结构、对人均GDP计算加入环境因素、调整能源消费结构、大力支持节能减排技术的发展等方面入手。

In this paper,the LMDI method is used to decompose the amount of carbon emissions into carbon emission efficiency effect,energy consumption intensity effect,industrial structure effect and economic efficiency effect.Besides the carbon emission of industrial sector,residents’consumption carbon emissions are taken into consideration.The results show that the energy consumption intensity effect of the industrial sector and industrial structure effect are the main driving factors to reduce carbon emissions in Jiangxi province from 2012 to 2016.The economic scale efficiency and the carbon emission efficiency effect also have a certain promotion effect on the emission reduction,while the energy dissipation intensity effect of residential consumption is to increase carbon emissions.Therefore,in order to develop low carbon economy and build'Jiangxi model',Jiangxi province needs to optimize the industrial structure,add the environmental factors to the per capita GDP calculation,adjust the energy consumption structure,and vigorously support the development of the energy saving and emission reduction technology.