“丝绸之路”旅游生态健康状况动态评价研究

Research on Dynamic Evaluation of Tourism Eco-Health Condition in the Silk Road

基于DPSIR模型构建评价指标体系,以"丝绸之路"为案例地,运用熵权法、D-S证据理和重心模型,对旅游生态健康状况进行动态评价。结果表明:(1)2007—2015年,状态、响应指数呈上升趋势,影响指数在同一水平上下波动,而驱动力、压力指数下跌显著,各指数变动存在空间差异性;(2)沿线五省旅游生态健康状况较差,均位于Ⅰ～Ⅳ等级,根据其等级演化趋势,将省市划分为改善型、恶化型、反复型三种类型;(3)从重心迁移轨迹来看,健康等级空间差异缩小,从标准差椭圆演变来看,南北区域生态健康改善优于东西区域,健康状况在西北—东南方向上具有显著的方向性,健康区域在空间上呈扩散趋势。研究结果可为"丝绸之路"旅游生态管理与监控提供决策参考。

The evaluation index system of the tourism eco-health was constructed based on the DPSIR model.Afterwards,taking the Silk Road as an example,the entropy weight method and D-S evidence theory was used to conduct a dynamic evaluation of the tourism eco-health.The spatial-temporal dynamic analysis was studied using the gravity center model.The results show that:(1)There were spatial differences in the changes of each index from 2007 to 2015.Judging from the classified indexes,the evaluation indexes of the state and response subsystem were all increasing at different momentums,yet that of the impact subsystem fluctuated at the same level.Furthermore,there existed a significant downward trend of the driving force and pressure subsystem.(2)In the five provinces along the Silk Road,the status of the tourism eco-heath was poor,all located in the level ofⅠ-Ⅳ.According to the hierarchical evolution trend of the tourism eco-health,the provinces were divided into three types:improved,deteriorating and iterative.(3)From the perspective of the center of gravity migration trajectory,the spatial difference in health level was reduced.From the evolution of the standard deviation ellipse,the improvement of the tourism eco-health in the north-south regions was better than that in the east-west regions.There was significant directionality in the northwest-southeast of the condition of the tourism eco-health,and the healthy areas showed a trend of diffusion in space.The research results can provide decision-making reference for the tourism ecology management and monitoring of the Silk Road.