经济发展水平、环境质量与结构错配——基于就业结构和产业结构的考察

Economic Development Level, Environmental Pollution and Structure Mismatch: The Investigation of Employment Structure and Industrial Structure

文章利用1978—2015年的时间序列数据,利用格兰杰因果检验研究环境污染程度、经济发展水平与结构错配之间的因果关系,以构建的基准模型实证分析环境污染程度与经济发展水平对结构错配的影响。研究结论为:第一,环境污染程度和经济发展水平是结构错配的格兰杰成因,但结构错配并不是环境污染程度和经济发展水平的格兰杰成因,即环境污染程度、经济发展水平与结构错配之间存在单项的格兰杰因果关系;第二,结构错配指标为负,第三产业增加值比第二产业增加值小,但第三产业就业人数却比第二产业就业人数大,产业结构与就业结构之间存在结构错配问题;第三,环境污染程度与结构错配短期内呈"U"型关系,但长期负相关,即降低环境污染程度有利于结构错配的改善;第四,经济发展水平与结构错配之间表现为"U"型关系,即随着经济发展水平的提高,结构错配先恶化后改善。

This paper uses the data based on the order of time from 1978 to 2015,using the Granger causality test method studying the cause and effect relationship between the environmental pollution together with economic development and structural mismatch.A baseline model is constructed for analyzing the environmental pollution or economic development’s impact on the structural mismatch.The conclusions of the study are as follows:First,environmental pollution and the economic development are the Granger’s causes of structural mismatch.However,the opposite is not true.This means the cause and effect relationship is with a single direction in the Granger test.Second,the structural mismatch index is negative;the increment of tertiary industry is smaller than the increment of secondary industry.There are more people employed in the tertiary industry.Therefore,a structural mismatch exists between the industrial structure and the employment structure.Third,the environmental pollution and structural mismatch are in a'U-shaped'relationship in the short run,which would be negatively correlated in a long run.This means reducing the amount of environmental pollutants is good for the industrial structure.Fourth,the relationship between economic development and structural mismatch is a'U-shaped'one.This means the mismatch would get worsen at first and then improved with economic development.