基于灌区面板数据的流域土地利用强度及其影响因素时空差异识别

Basin land use intensity based on panel data of irrigation district and the identification of spatiotemporal difference of influencing factors

以疏勒河流域中下游为研究对象,借助土地利用强度综合指数和随机前沿函数分析模型(Stochastic Frontier Analysis,SFA模型),分析了1987—2015年土地利用强度及其影响因素的时空差异。结果表明:1987—2015年疏勒河流域中下游土地利用结构未发生明显变化,无植被区始终占主导地位,达80%以上,其次为草地,建设用地面积最少,不足1%;土地利用强度综合指数呈递增趋势,时空差异显著,1987—2015年该指数增加了35.36,其中1996—2007年上升最快,达到24.17,占增加值的68.35%,2007年后仍有增长,但相比前一阶段趋于平缓,且在空间上呈现由"东西低,中间高"向"东中高,西部低"转变的趋势;灌区尺度土地利用强度变化影响因素的时空差异显著,1987—1996年三大灌区土地利用强度变化与农业生产结构和移民有关,1996—2007年受用地变化和移民的影响,2007—2015年与农业生产结构和用地变化关系显著。

We analyzed the land use intensity in the middle and lower reaches of Shule River Basin and the temporal and spatial variation of influencing factors between 1987 and 2015 by using the comprehensive index of land use intensity and the model of SFA( Stochastic Frontier Analysis). The results showed that there was no obvious change in the land use structure of the middle and lower reaches of the Shule River Basin between 1987 and 2015. Non-vegetative area still dominated over 80%,followed by grassland,and construction land was the least( < 1%).The comprehensive index land use intensity showed an increase trend,with significant spatiotemporal differences. The index raised by 35. 36 during 1987-2015,with a sharp increase during1996-2007,reaching 24. 17,which accounted for 68. 35% of the total increment value. After2007,the increase became steadier than the previous stage,and the spatial pattern of land use intensity showed a trend from 'low in east and west,and high in middle'to 'high in east and middle,and low in west'. The spatiotemporal difference of influencing factors of land use intensity was significant at irrigation district level. Land use intensity change in the three irrigation districts was related to agricultural production structure and immigrants during 1987-1996,and was affected by land use change and immigrants during 1996-2007,and by agricultural production structure and land use change between 2007 and 2015.