福建省漳州地区龙眼始花期预测模型

本文利用漳州市热带作物气象试验站1997~2013年龙眼花期物候观测资料,结合对应的气候资料,采用相关分析法分析开花前期温度、降水、日照等气象因子与始花时间的相关关系。结果表明:前期的平均气温、平均最低气温以及越冬期的积温与开花时间相关性较好,采用逐步回归方法,利用SPSS软件,建立了龙眼始花期预测模型,平均误差为2.2天,其中小等于3天的误差占总样本数的75%,模型拟合效果较好,预报准确率满足业务要求,可提供较为准确的始花期预报,为果农合理安排生产及对农业部门提前决策部署提供科学依据。

Based on the data of the beginning of the longyan flowering period from 1997 to 2013 and the meteorological data from Zhangzhou tropical crops meteorological experiment station, this paper analyzed the relationship between the flowering time and meteorological factors by using correlation analysis method. The results show that: the average temperature, average minimum temperature and the accumulated temperature in wintering period have a good correlation with flowering time. Using stepwise regression method, established the longan prediction model for beginning of by SPSS. The average error is 2. 2 days, which is less than or equal to 3 days accounted for 75% of the total number of samples. The model fits well, meets business requirements, can provide the more accurate flowering prediction, to provide a scientific basis for farmers to arrange production and the agriculture department in early decision deployment.