房价偏离与“补涨”效应——以长三角地区为例

Housing Price Deviation and “Compensatory Growth” Effect——Taking the Yangtze River Delta As An Example

近年来,房价问题逐渐成为困扰我国经济健康可持续发展的重要难题,合理的房价上涨应该以经济发展的基本面为基础。研究发现,实际收入、信贷扩张和人口城镇化等因素是长三角地区房价上升的主要驱动力,大部分城市的实际房价对基本面都存在着不同程度的偏离。实际房价低于基本面价格所形成的价值"洼地",会在未来形成推动房价上涨的潜在动力,释放出"补涨"效应。房价偏离的周期性变化规律为理解部分城市的房价上涨问题提供了一个可能的解释框架。房价本身可能就具有时间上的自动"熨平"机制,短期的房价调控手段并非治本之策。房价偏离与"补涨"效应的解释逻辑,对于深入理解部分城市房价上涨问题具有一定的参考意义。

In recent years,the housing price has gradually become an important issue that has already plagued the healthy and sustainable development of China’ s economy. A reasonable rise in housing prices should be based on the fundamentals of economic development. The study shows that factors such as real income,credit expansion,and population urbanization are the main driving forces for the rise in housing prices in the Yangtze River Delta region. The real housing prices in most cities have deviated from the basic level to varying degrees. The value 'depression'is formed when the real housing price is lower than the fundamental price. It will become a potential driving force for the increase of housing price in the future and have a 'compensatory'effect. The cyclical variation law of house price deviation provides a possible explanation framework for understanding the rise of house prices in some cities. The housing price itself may have an automatic 'smoothing'mechanism in time,and short-term house price adjustment measures are not radical to solve this problem. The explanation logic of house price deviation and 'compensatory'effect has certain reference to the deep understanding of the rising housing prices in some cities.