高校扩招、教育收益率与城乡收入阶层分化——基于断点回归的分析

Enrollment Expansion of High Institution,Education Rate of Return and Differentiation of Urban and Rural Income Classes——Analysis Based on Regression Discontinuity

利用中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS),基于模糊断点回归设计方法,对我国城乡居民教育收益率进行实证检验,探讨高校扩招政策对城乡居民教育收益率的影响以及对城乡居民带来的收入阶层分化效应。结果显示,高等教育扩招政策对城乡居民教育程度均产生了显著的正向影响,但对提高城镇居民受教育程度的作用更为明显;高校扩招政策对城乡内部不同收入群体的教育及收入产生了显著的分化作用,有助于缩小城市内部不同收入群体的教育收益率,但对不同收入群体的收入及教育具有分化影响,形成了"马太效应";高校扩招政策对城乡之间不同收入群体的影响也存在分化影响,在一定程度上缩小了城乡间高收入群体的收入差距。

Based on the China Comprehensive Social Survey Data( CGSS) and fuzzy regression discontinuity design method,an empirical test is conducted in this paper to explore the impact of college enrollment expansion policies on the education rate of urban and rural residents and differentiation of urban and rural income classes according to the returns to education of urban and rural residents in China. The result indicates that the enrollment expansion policy of higher education has a significant positive impact on the education level of urban and rural residents,but it has more obvious effects on improving the education level of urban residents. Furthermore,the enrollment expansion policy of colleges and universities has a significant differentiation effect on the education and income of different income groups in urban and rural areas,which could help to reduce the educational rate of return for different income groups within the city. But,it will have a differentiation effect on the income and education of different income groups,forming a 'Matthew effect'. The university’s enrollment expansion policy has a differentiation effect on the education and income of different income groups in urban and rural areas,which has narrowed the income gap between urban and rural high-income groups to some extent.