MD&A前瞻性信息能提升财务危机预测能力吗——基于信号传递和言语有效理论视角的实证分析

Does MD&A Forward-looking Information Improve the Predictive Ability of Financial Crisis——Empirical Analysis Based on Perspectives of Signal Transmission and Speech Effective Theory

采用文本分析法,构建了管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)前瞻性信息衡量指标——"管理层净乐观语调"和风险提示信息,研究了其对企业财务危机预测的增量贡献,同时以2012—2016年的A股主板上市公司为样本,将企业被ST作为危机标志,构建了危机预测模型进行实证分析。研究发现,MD&A前瞻性信息能够显著提升财务危机预测能力。进一步的研究显示,在内部控制水平低、分析师关注度低、机构投资者持股比例低时,前瞻性信息与企业未来是否发生财务危机的相关性更强,模型的预测能力也更高。

This paper used text analysis to construct two indicators,management net optimistic tone and risk warning information,to measure MD&A’s forward-looking information,and studied its incremental contribution to the prediction of corporate financial crisis.Meanwhile,we selected A-share main board listed companies from 2012 to 2016 as the sample,set the ST as financial crisis sign and made an empirical analysis through building a prediction model.The research has proved that,MD&A forward-looking information can significantly improve the predictive ability of financial crisis.Further research reveals that,forward-looking information would be more relevant to the chances of financial crisis in conditions of the lower level of internal control,the lower attention of analysts and the lower proportion of institutional investors,when the model would be more predictable.