情景分析法在停车需求预测中的应用研究

The Application Research on the Scenario Analysis in Parking Demand Prediction

针对传统停车需求预测方法预测情景单一的情况,提出了基于情景分析法的停车需求预测方法。通过分析停车需求状况,设定了未来可能出现的3种情景,并对停车需求影响因素进行了分析。利用SPSS软件对数据进行了处理分析,确定了各个情景的停车需求预测模型以及模型中的参数。最后,以2017年为预测基年,对各情景下停车需求的发展趋势进行预测。

In view of the single forecasting scenario for traditional parking demand prediction method, this paper proposed a parking demand prediction method based on the scenario analysis. By analyzing the parking demand, it set three possible scenarios in the future and analyzed the influencing factors of parking demand. It also processed and analyzed by SPSS software, determined the parking demand prediction model and the parameters of the model of each scenario. Finally, taking 2017 as the prediction base year, it also predicted the development trend of parking demand under various scenarios.