基于三维生态足迹模型的唐山市水资源承载力研究

Research on Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Tangshan City Based on 3D Ecological Footprint Model

水资源是国计民生与环境发展的战略基础,研究水资源承载力可为资源环境规划和区域可持续发展战略实施提供基础信息。以2001年～2015年唐山市统计数据为基础,借助三维生态足迹模型核算了唐山市水资源消费和水资源存量,并计算了区域水资源承载力的生态足迹,在此基础上构建水资源综合压力指数,对唐山市水资源承载力进行综合、动态分析评估。结果表明,2001年～2015年间,唐山市农业、工业、生活和其他用水的水资源生态足迹平均值为1.5370 hm2、0.148 hm2、0.351 hm2、0.178 hm2/人,均呈线性增加趋势;其生态赤字平均值为-0.242 hm2、-0.483 hm2、-0.332 hm2、-.645 hm2/人,表明唐山水资源承载力处于透支状态;2001年～2015年唐山市水资源压力指数呈线性升高趋势(y=0.0423x-79.469,R2=0.8888);随着时间变化,区域水资源压力指数增加,资源承载负荷逐渐加大。

Water resources are an indispensable strategic basis for national economy, people’s livelihood and environmental development. Research on water resources carrying capacity provides basic information for resource and environmental planning and regional sustainable development strategy implementation. Based on the statistical data of Tangshan City from 2001 to 2015, this paper calculates the water consumption and water resources stock of Tangshan City by means of 3D ecological footprint model, and calculates the ecological footprint of regional water resources carrying capacity. Comprehensive water resources carrying capacity, comprehensive and dynamic assessment of water resources carrying capacity in Tangshan City. The results show that the average ecological footprint of agricultural, industrial,domestic and other water resources in Tangshan City durin g the period from 2001 to 2015 was 1.5370, 0.148, 0.351,0.178 hm2/person, both of which showed a linear increase trend;-0.242,-0.483,-0.332,-0.645 hm2/person, indicating that Tangshan’s water resources carrying capacity is overdraft;from 2001 to 2015, Ta ngs han City’s water resources pressure index showed a linear in crease(y= 0.0423x-79.469,R2= 0.8888);As time changes, the regional water stress index increases, and the resource carrying capacity gradually increases.