偏差性视角下中国真实消费贡献率分析

An Analysis of China's True Consumption Contribution Rate Based on the Perspective of Deviation

消费率偏低一直是国内学者研究和现实经济发展中饱受争议的问题,但与消费率紧密相关的消费贡献率是否真实却鲜有学者探讨。通过对消费贡献率两个影响因素——消费率和速度因素的分析,计算1995—2017年中国真实消费贡献率并对其进行佐证,结果显示:我国真实与统计消费贡献率存在偏差且"真实消费贡献率被低估",验证了消费对经济增长的主引擎作用,证明"释放消费潜力,促进消费增长"相关政策的正确性和可靠性。在经济增速放缓,投资、出口效益递减的新常态时期,释放消费红利,促进消费、投资、出口协调发展是中国经济持续发展的大逻辑。因此,应着力提高消费率和消费增长速度以提高消费贡献率。

The low consumption rate has been a controversial problem in domestic scholars’research and the real economic situation,but whether the consumption contribution rate which is closely related to the consumption rate,is true has not been explored by many scholars.Based on the analysis of influencing the factors of consumption contribution rate-the consumption rate and the speed factor,this paper calculates and verifies the real consumption contribution rate in China from 1995 to 2017,and concludes that there is a deviation between the true and statistical consumption contribution rate in China,which further points out that the'consumption contribution rate is underestimated'.This conclusion verifies the main engine of consumption to economic growth,supports the correctness and reliability of the relevant policies'releasing the consumption potential and promoting consumption growth'.In the new normal period with slowing economic growth and decreasing efficiency of investment and exports,releasing consumption bonuses and promoting the coordinated development of consumption,investment and exports are the great logic of China’s sustained economic development.Therefore,we should focus on improving the consumption rate and consumption growth to increase the consumption contribution rate.