“消费驱动”下消费、投资与出口三大需求协调率分析

An Analysis on the Coordination of Consumption,Investment,and Export Demands Behind “Consumption-led”Development

十九大明确提出"经济增长要向依靠消费、投资、出口协调拉动转变",设定了消费、投资和出口协调拉动的发展目标。在消费驱动型发展模式基本确立的"十三五"开局之际,借鉴系统协调率模型,扩展建立了三大需求协调率模型,测算出2000—2017年中国三大需求的协调率为0. 647 9。同时,利用经验数据和Almon多项式分布滞后模型对我国三大需求协调率与经济增长率之间的关系进行了实证研究,结果表明:三大需求协调率对经济增长率即期影响并不显著,但长期存在显著的积极影响,且具有为期3年的明显滞后效应,之后作用力度逐年递减。长期坚持"消费、投资、出口协调拉动经济增长"方针,对收入分配、社会保障等相关政策进行适当微调是促进经济发展方式转变,实现经济自主协调、持续稳定增长的必然选择。

The Nineteenth congress explicitly put forward the notion that'economic growth mainly relies on the coordination between consumption,investment and exports'and sets the goal that consumption,investment and exports will be coordinated to boost economic development.In the start of the 13 th Five-Year Plan,we based on a system coordination model,extensively establish a demand coordination rate model and measure the that 2000—2017 average demand coordination rate is 0.647 9,as well as using empirical data and the Almon polynomial distribution lag model to investigate the relationship between the demand coordination rate and economic growth.The empirical results show that the demand coordination rate has a positive effect on economic growth,but the immediate impact is not significant,while the lag effect is obvious,the time limit is three years and the strength is decreasing.In addition,in the long run,the demand coordination rate also has a significant positive effect on economic growth.Therefore,during the period of the new normal,our country should still adhere to the'consumption,investment and exports coordinately developed to heave economy growth'policies and regulations,appropriately fine-tuning the income distribution,social security and other related policies,promote the economic growth mode transformation and ultimately achieve sustained,stable and high-speed growth.