基于MCM的不确定度评定软件开发

Uncertainty assessment software development with MCM

蒙特卡洛法(MCM)是基于对输入量的概率分布进行统计模拟的一种不确定度评定方法,主要应用于不适合使用GUM法评定测量不确定度的场合,并可对GUM法评定结果进行验证。提出一种用VB6实现自适应蒙特卡洛试验的软件实现方法,根据用户录入的输入量参数生成符合相应分布规律的伪随机数,代入用户录入的测量模型,得到一组输出量的蒙特卡洛试验数据,对这些数据进行统计处理得到输出量的测量不确定度评定结果及其概率密度分布曲线。该文简要介绍了软件的系统架构、测量不确定评定中常见分布的伪随机数算法及统计试验关键算法。

MCM is one uncertainty assessment method through statistical simulation based on probability distribution of the input.It mainly applies to any situations that is unsuitable to assess uncertainty measurement by GUM and also could validate the GUM assessment results.This article introduces a software method with VB6 which could adapt to MCM test.Based on the input parameters that users input,it can generate the pseudo-random number conforming to distribution regularity;After putting the pseudo-random number into the measurement model,it can generate the MCM test data of the output;then it can get the uncertainty measurement assessment results and the probability density distribution curve after dealing with the above data.The article briefly introduces the systemic structure of the software,common calculation methods of pseudo-random number and key calculation methods of statistic test.