GM(1,1)与Verhulst模型在地基沉降预测中的适用性比较

Comparison in applicability of GM(1,1) and Verhulst models in prediction of foundation settlement

为比较灰色Verhulst模型和GM(1,1)模型在地基沉降预测中的适用性,对某工程实例复合地基的沉降进行分析,并与实测沉降数据进行对比.结果表明:灰色Verhulst模型比GM(1,1)模型更适用,Verhulst模型预测结果更接近实测值,预测精度也更高;Verhulst模型不仅能够预测最终沉降量,也能很好地反映全过程的沉降与时间的关系.两种灰色模型中,Verhulst模型预测精度高,更适合应用于地基沉降预测,值得在实际工程中推广运用.

In order to compare the applicability of grey Verhulst model and GM (1,1 )model in the prediction of foundation settlement,the settlement of composite foundation of certain engineering example was analyzed and compared with the measured settlement data.The results show that the Verhulst model has better applicability compared with the GM (1,1 )model,and the predicted results obtained with the Verhulst model is closer to the measured values.The Verhulst model can not only predict the final settlement,but also reflect the relationship between the settlement and time in whole process.For the two grey models,the Verhulst model has higher prediction precision,is more suitable for the prediction of foundation settlement,and is worth of generalization and application in the practical engineering.