我国石油化工合同能源管理项目风险评价研究

Risk evaluation research of China's petrochemical Energy Performance Contracting projects

本文研究的目的是为我国石油化工合同能源管理(Energy Performance Contracting,EPC)项目风险评价提供一种方法。EPC源于20世纪70年代中期的美国,在国外发展了40多年,且发展得非常迅速。1997年,作为一种先进的能源管理模式,EPC引入中国。经过近20年,尽管其在国内得到迅速发展,但在我国石油化工行业推广应用过程中却较为迟缓。本文通过文献分析和问卷调查,构建了我国石油化工合同能源管理项目风险指标体系,并采用层次分析法的改良法-G1赋权法和模糊综合评价法,对宁夏石化公司实施的合同能源管理项目风险进行实证评价。

This paper's purpose is to provide a method for the risk evaluation of China's petrochemical Energy Performance Contracting(EPC) projects. EPC which originated in the United States in the middle of 1970 s developed rapidly over 40 years. In 1997, EPC was introduced into China as an advanced energy management mode. For nearly 20 years, EPC has been developing rapidly in China. However, in the petroleum and chemical industries of China the process of EPC is slow. Through literature analysis and questionnaire survey, the risk index system of China's petrochemical EPC projects has been constructed. Based on this, an improved G1 weighting method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are applied to evaluate the risk of the EPC project of the Ningxia Petrochemical Company.