基于因子分析法的城市燃气可持续发展评价

Evaluation of sustainable development of city gas based on factor analysis

城市燃气可持续发展研究相对较少,以中国城市燃气为整体研究对象的可持续发展评价仍是空白。本文以系统论和层次分析法工作原理为指导,以城市燃气可持续发展为整体研究对象,通过指标的初选和筛选,构建了由5个子系统和47项具体指标构成的城市燃气可持续发展评价指标体系。在搜集和整理大量原始指标数据基础上,运用因子分析法对城市燃气可持续发展系统进行了分析和评价。2002—2014年,各子系统发展呈上升趋势,但又表现不尽一致。经济子系统波动幅度较大,社会子系统持续稳定增长,资源子系统前紧后松,环境子系统稳中趋缓,技术子系统最为显著。以城市燃气子系统运动的多维空间结构模型为基础,结合因子分析法评价结果,对城市燃气系统整体的发展能力、协调能力、持续能力和可持续发展水平做出评价。总体来看,城市燃气系统发展能力不断增强,整体协调性较高,持续能力稳步提升。在其共同作用下,城市燃气行业可持续发展水平不断提高。

Research into sustainable development of urban gas is relatively sparse, and the evaluation of sustainable development based on the overall research into urban gas in China is still blank. Guided by system theory and analytic hierarchy processes(AHP), this paper took the sustainable development system of China's urban gas as a whole research object, and constructed the city gas sustainable development evaluation index system which consists of 5 subsystems and 47 specific indicators through primaries and screening indexes. On the basis of collecting and arranging a large amount of original index data, the authors analyzed and evaluated the sustainable development system of urban gas by using the factor analysis method. During 2002-2014, the development of each subsystem has shown an upward tendency, but with different performance. The economic subsystem fluctuates more widely, while the social subsystem continues to grow steadily. The resource subsystem developed fast early on and slowly in the latter stage. The development of the environment subsystem is best described as stable and slow, and the growth of the technology subsystem is most remarkable. Based on the multidimensional spatial structure model of urban gas subsystem movement, and combining the factor analysis evaluation results, this work calculates the development capacity, coordination ability, sustainable ability and sustainable development level of the urban gas system, and then evaluates its sustainable development. Overall, the development capacity of urban gas systems is increasing, the whole system reflects a high degree of coordination, and the sustainable ability has been improved steadily. Under this joint action, the sustainable development level of city gas industry has been increasing continuously.