全球影响力分析框架下的中委能源关系研究

Research on Energy Relations between China and Venezuela under Global Impact Analysis Framework

委内瑞拉能源资源丰富,中委两国存在合作互补的巨大潜力。2018年委内瑞拉探明石油储量排名世界第一,但石油产量却长期处于下降趋势,仅排名世界第15位。该国原油多为重油,且近年来原油出口量和质量都不断下降。委内瑞拉的经济过度依赖石油工业,其他行业发展不均衡,其国内生产总值在2011~2017年间持续下降,原油出口收入也大幅下降,再加上美国的制裁,委政府正面临高额债务、恶性通货膨胀、失业率居高等一系列问题。委内瑞拉目前是中国在拉美最大的投资目的国,两国能源合作短时间内还会继续采用'贷款换石油'的贸易模式。但委国内的经济、政局存在不稳定因素,不排除发生债务违约和法律风险的可能。美国对委内瑞拉减少石油进口量、干涉其内政及不断加强经济制裁等手段,都会间接地给中委能源合作造成负面影响。俄委两国在冷战后期就开始了能源领域的合作,而且这种合作将继续增强。印度需要通过进口来保障本国能源安全,而委内瑞拉是印度在拉美地区最主要的能源合作对象。中国应支持委内瑞拉解决其国内经济危机;在委能源问题上要处理好与其他国家的关系,寻找竞争与合作之间的平衡点;借助'一带一路'建设,共同提高两国能源技术、培养专业人才;加强对委投资与贷款的监管力度,密切关注国际和委国内的形势及政策走向,及时调整在委的能源战略与政策。

Venezuela has abundant energy resources,and there is great potential for cooperation and complementarity between China and Venezuela.In 2018,Venezuela ranked first in the world in terms of proven oil reserves,but its oil production has been on a declining trend for a long period of time,ranking only 15 th in the world.Most of its crude oil is heavy oil,and its crude oil export and quality have been declining in recent years.Venezuela′s economy is over-reliant on its oil industry,and the development of other industries is unbalanced.Its GDP continued to decline from 2011 to 2017,and its crude oil export revenues also fell sharply.Together with the US sanctions,the Venezuelan government is facing a series of problems such as high debt,hyperinflation and high unemployment.Currently Venezuela is China′s largest investment destination in Latin America.The energy cooperation between the two countries will continue to adopt the loans-for-oil trade model within a short period of time.However,there are unstable factors in the economic and political situations in Venezuela,and the debt default and legal risks cannot be ruled out.The means adopted by the United States for Venezuela,including reducing oil imports from Venezuela,interfering in its internal affairs and continuously strengthening economic sanctions,will indirectly have a negative impact on the China-Venezuela energy cooperation.Russia and Venezuela began cooperation in energy field at the later stage of the Cold War,and this cooperation will continue to grow.India needs to protect its energy security through imports,and Venezuela is the main energy partner of India in Latin America.China should help Venezuela solve its domestic economic crisis,correctly handle the relationship with Venezuela′s energy-cooperating countries and find a balance between competition and cooperation,use the Belt and Road construction to improve energy technologies and cultivate professionals in both countries,strengthen the supervision of the investment and loans in Venezuela,pay close attention to the situation and policy trends in the world and in Venezuela,and timely adjust the energy strategy and policies in Venezuela.