我国养老服务发展的驱动机制与实证检验

An Exploratory Research on the Logic of the Development of Elder Care Service in China

养老服务体系建设是我国积极应对老龄化的重要任务,但目前利用宏观数据探讨养老服务发展驱动因素的研究不足。本文在总结文献的基础上提出了经济驱动、政策驱动、社会驱动和需求驱动四大驱动机制,并利用省级短面板数据进行了实证检验。研究发现:(1)近年政策对养老服务供给的驱动效果显著,经济发展的驱动效果有限,社会组织发展的驱动效果只在城市显著;(2)目前我国城乡机构养老和农村社区养老均存在供需不均衡的情况;(3)养老服务的发展逻辑存在城乡差异,城镇中养老政策和社会组织都较好地起到了驱动作用,但在农村中养老政策和社会组织都存在不同程度的失效现象。本文对养老服务发展逻辑的探讨提出了新的分析框架,有助于分析当前养老服务发展存在的问题,对提出更有针对性、更具可执行性的完善建议起到参考作用。

The construction of the Elder Care Service System is an important task for our country to actively respond to the aging,but at present,there is insufficient research on the influencing factors of the development of the elder care service by using macro-data.On the basis of summarizing the literature,this paper puts forward four driving mechanisms:economic driving,policy driving,social driving and demand driving,and makes an empirical test using provincial short panel data.We find that:(1)the driving effect of policy on the supply of elder care services is remarkable,the driving effect of economic development is limited,and the driving effect of social organization development is only remarkable in cities;(2)there is an imbalance between the supply and demand of institutional pension and rural community pension in China;(3)there are differences between urban and rural areas in the development logic of elder care services.Policies and social organizations in cities and towns play a good driving role,but in rural areas,policies and social organizations are ineffective to varying degrees.This paper puts forward a new analytical framework for exploring the logic of the development of the elder care service,which helps analyze the problems existing in the development of the present elder care service,and provides a reference for putting forward more targeted and enforceable suggestions for improvement.