基于系统动力学的南阳市水资源供需平衡分析

Analysis of water supply and demand balance in Nanyang City based on system dynamics

利用系统动力学模型定量模拟了南水北调中线工程渠首所在地南阳市的水资源供需情况,并在分析水资源供需平衡影响因子的基础上,假定了传统发展模式、强调经济增长的发展模式、经济发展与环境相协调模式等3种南阳市社会经济发展模式,对未来水资源的供需平衡状况进行分析。结果表明,按照传统发展模式,未来几年南阳市将面临严峻的水资源短缺形势;强调经济增长的发展模式则会使水资源短缺问题进一步加剧;在协调型模式下,水资源供求矛盾最小。指出为解决水资源供需矛盾、保障南水北调工程的供水安全,必须尽快转变经济发展方式,依靠节水投资、科技进步、水资源管理等手段来提高水资源利用率,从根本上减少水资源需求量,维持水资源供需平衡和社会经济持续健康发展。

In this paper,the water supply and demand situation in Nanyang City,Which is the location of the head of the Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion,was simulated using system dynamics model. Based on the analysis of the factors affecting the balance of water supply and demand,three social and economic development programs of Nanyang City,that is,'traditional development mode','emphasized economic growth development mode ' and 'economic and environmental coordination development mode ' were assumed.Meanwhile,future water resources supply and demand balance were analyzed. The results showed that under the'traditional development mode',Nanyang City would face severe water shortages in the future years; under the'emphasized economic growth development mode',water shortages in Nanyang City would be further intensified;under the 'economic and environmental coordination development mode ',there would be a minimum conflict between water supply and demand. Therefore,in order to solve the contradiction between water supply and demand and ensure water supply security of South to North Water Diversion Project,the economic development mode should be changed as soon as possible and some effective measures, such as relying on water-saving investment,technological progress,water resources management and other means,should be taken to improve the utilization of water resources. Only in this way can we fundamentally reduce the amount of water resources,maintain water supply and demand balance water resources and can the social economy develop continuously and healthily.