摘要
在生态脆弱的黄土高原地区,农业生产受到气候变化的影响波动很大。本文在介绍脆弱性的有关定义和农业生产的气候脆弱性评估方案的基础上,对1997年的脆弱性状况做了初步评估,并利用有关GCM预测结果,估算了有关灾害指标的可能变化,对未来黄土高原地区农业生产的气候脆弱性可能变化进行了预测,其评估方法和预测结果可为有关部门决策提供一定的科学依据。
In the loess plateau where the zoology is vulnerable, the influence of climate changes on agricultural production fluctuates greatly Based on an introduction to the definition of vulnerability and an assessment scheme of climate vulnerability of agricultural production, a preliminary assessment of vulnerability in 1997 is made By use of the results of GCM forecast, the possible changes of disaster index are evaluated The possible change of climate vulnerability of agricultural production in future in loess plateau is forecasted The evaluation method and results of forecast can be used by related sectors as scientific basis for decisionmaking
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
2003年第3期34-38,90,共6页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
科技部社会公益项目"我国西北地区生态气候环境监测预测方法研究"资助
关键词
气候变化
脆弱性
农业生产
黄土高原
climate change
vulnerability
agricultural production
loess plateau
