春季连阴雨对江苏省夏收作物产量的影响

The Impact of Continuous Rain in Spring on the Summer Harvest in Jiangsu Province

分析了江苏省40年(1960～1999)春季连阴雨的发生概率、发展趋势及其时空分布规律。研究发现,春季连阴雨累计日数、总雨量与夏粮产量呈显著负相关关系,且累计日数≥30d时,夏粮减产非常明显,这种情况的发生概率达59.1%。

The probability, trend and distribution rule of continuous rain in spring in Jiangsu province during 19601999 is analyzed It is found that there are remarkable negative correlativity between accumulative days, the total rain and the summer harvest The summer harvest is reduced evidently when accumulative days of rainfall exceeded 30 days and this probability reached 591% 