湖北瘟疫灾害的时空分布规律:770BC～AD1911

The temporal-spatial distribution of epidemic disasters in 770BC^AD1911 Hubei province

瘟疫灾害是由传染病大规模流行对人类健康和生命构成直接危害的顶级灾害.770BC～AD1911间,湖北至少有136年发生过疫灾,其中15～19世纪和3～5世纪为疫灾高峰期,总体上疫灾频度具有长期上升的趋势,这与历史时期中国气候的趋干趋冷和湖北人口的日趋稠密有密切关系.AD1000以前,湖北的疫灾主要分布在荆州至襄樊一线,AD1000以后则主要分布在安陆至沔阳一线以东,整个历史时期疫灾重心表现出由西向东迁移的趋势,鄂东地区是疫灾的主要流行区.

Epidemic disaster,a top disaster of human society, results from the massive prevalence of acute infectious diseases, and threatens directly human health safety and life security. From 770BC through AD1911, Hubei province experienced at least 136 years of epidemic prevalence,the temporal change of its epidemic frequency in the historical period showed a longterm increasing tendency, including 2 peaks of epidemic frequency of the 15 th^19 th century and the 3 rd^5 th century, this result probably was closely related with the tendency of both colder climate change and denser population distribution. Before AD1000,the epidemic disaster of Hubei mainly occurred in the area around Jingzhou city and Xiangfan city; after then, it mainly covered the area east to Anlu County and Mianyang County. During the whole researched period,the core of epidemic distribution seemed to have a shift from west towards east, and the eastern area of Hubei has most frequent epidemic disaster.