农村能源综合建设效益评价及灰色系统方法应用

The Effect Assessment of Integrated Rural Energy Development and the Application of Grey System Method

本文对农村能源综合建设亟需解决的效益评价问题进行了研究,并着重探讨了后效益评价方法。提出了用综合指数评价综合建设效益,同时把农村能源综合建设效益分为当前效益和未来效益,从而引出了效益现评价和预评价概念,并用灰色系统预测方法对广东某县农村能源综合建设建立了效益预评价模型,证明方法合理、可行。

This paper studies the effect assessment method that need to be solved urgently in integrated rural energy development, and emphesizes to research the future effect assessment approach. The paper presents that the effect of integrated development is assessed by the integrated index, at the same time, the effect is divided into the present effect and future effect, thereby, the concepts of the present effect and future effect assessment are put forward. Finally, the forecasting method of Grey System applied to establish a future effect assessment model, and it is used to the effect assessment of the integrated rural energy development in a sample county in Guangdong Province.