中国SARS流行的季节性风险探讨

On season risk of the prevalence of SARS in China

本文对我国SARS (非典型肺炎 )疫区流行期的气候特征作了统计分析。根据这种特征 ,提出了SARS流行的气候风险作为认识SARS流行的季节性风险的基础 ,最后估计了全国流行SARS的季节性风险。其结论是并非所有区域在冬季都会出现最大风险 。

This paper conducts a statistical analysis of the climate characters of SARS epidemic area during the epidemic disease prevalence period, 2003 Based on the analysis, it puts forward the climate risk as a foundation of the seasonal risk estimation of the prevalence of SARS and estimates the risk of the main cities in China. The results are shown in Figs. 4-7 With these figures, we found that not all the areas reach the highest risk in winter; several conclusions are drawn about epidemic law As to the climate risk, SARS tends to prevail in most provinces in China during the Chinese season of spring and autumn; however area south to the tropic of cancer will reach a high risk during the Chinese season of winter But all of them will turn to be much safer in summer In month when SARS is in its prevalence, the disease outbreak is relative with the particular weather conditions, that atmospheric inversion is liable to occur SARS tends to prevail in climate area where atmospheric inversion is easy to find Generally, lower air pollution index and higher ultraviolet radiation will prevent SARS from being epidemic; the threshold value of the air pollution index is found to be 70 with some observed data Therefore on Qinghai Tibet Plateau, Yunnan Guizhou Plateau and Hainan Island the SARS has lower risk to outbreak