青藏铁路沿线气温和地温的极值推算

Estimation about Extreme Value of Air and Ground Temperature along Qinghai-Xizang Railway

利用耿贝尔分布函数对青藏铁路沿线7个气象站的气温和0cm地温进行了极值估计。结果表明:年极端最高气温50年一遇与常年接近,100年一遇比常年偏高0.1～1.5℃。年极端最高地温50年一遇比常年偏高0.0～10.2℃,100年一遇比常年偏高1.5～13.7℃。未来50年,如果年平均气温增加1.0℃,50年一遇的年极端最高气温将比常年偏高-0.1～2.0℃,100年一遇的将比常年偏高0.7～2.8℃。

Using the Gumber distribution function, the estimation values of the extreme air temperature and 0 cm ground temperature of 7 stations in Qinghai\|Xizang railway in recent 620 years are studied. The results showed that the estimated value of annual extreme maximum air temperature of once every 50 years will be almost the same as normal, and for once every 100 years, above 0.1～1.5℃ than normal. The estimated value of annual extreme maximum ground temperature of once every 50 years will be above 0.0～10.2℃ than normal, and for once every 100 years, above 1.5～13.7℃ than normal. If year mean temperature will increase 1℃ from now on 50 years, the estimated value of annual extreme maximum air temperature of once every 50 years will be above -0.1～2.0℃ than normal, and for once every 100 years, above 0.7～2.8℃ than normal.