应用EOF方法分析新疆降水变化特征

Analysis on Precipitation Characteristics in Xinjiang with EOF Method

使用新疆89个测站1960—1998年降水量和1、4、7、10月降水量资料,通过EOF分解法,分别计算出各降水场的特征向量分布和时间系数序列。并根据特征向量方差贡献,确定出若干个降水变化基本空间分布型,给出年降水变化分区图;同时结合分解出的时间系数,分析降水量年际变化特征,为今后作年、月气候预测提供一种方法和基本类型图。

With EOF Method, the precipitation data of January, April, July, October and annual average from 1960 to 1998 for 89 meteorological stations are used to deduce the distribution of character values and the temporal series of coefficients. According to the variance contribution of character values it was figured that the spatial distribution of several precipitation processes and the subdivision of annual precipitation change. Besides, the characteristics of annual precipitation change have been analyzed based on the deduced time coefficients. The study can provide a method and a basal figure type for the forecasting of annual and monthly climate.