气候转暖及人类活动对北疆中小河流降水-径流关系的影响

Influence of Climate Warming and Human Activity on Relationship between Precipitation and Runoff for Middle-Small River of Northern Xinjiang

利用近40a来的水文气象资料,分析北疆20世纪80～90年代气候转暖及人类活动对北疆不同地区的中小河流降水-径流关系的影响,主要结论如下:①北疆西部的哈拉依灭勒河、卡琅古尔河,在1980年以后气候转暖的背景下,它们的自然降水-径流关系并无明显改变。②北部额尔齐斯河流域东部产流区平均高程较高的大青河,在90年代气候显著转暖的背景下,其自然降水-径流关系并无明显改变;而位于大青河东侧、流域平均高程较低、山区流域降水量较小的小青河,在90年代气候明显转暖的背景下,其自然降水 径流关系发生了变化,所形成的自然地表径流量明显减少。③天山中部北坡的乌鲁木齐河,在80～90年代气候转暖的背景下,其自然降水-径流关系发生了变化,产流量明显偏多。④天山东部北坡的开垦河,在80～90年代气候转暖及人类活动影响的背景下,其自然降水-径流关系发生了变化,产流量减少。⑤乌鲁木齐近郊低山丘陵区的水磨河,在近40a来的增温及人类活动影响的背景下,其自然降水-径流关系发生了变化,尽管乌鲁木齐年降水量有增加趋势,而其径流却是减少的。

The data of hydrology and meteorology for the recent 40 years were used to analyze the influence of climate warming during 1980s～1990s and human activity on the relationship between precipitation and runoff for middle\|small rivers of northern Xinjiang. Main conclusions are as follows: (1) The relationship between natural precipitation and runoff of Halayimiele river and Kalangguer river located in the west of northern Xinjiang had no distinct change under the background of climate warming after 1980. (2) The relationship between natural precipitation and runoff of Daqing river located in the east of Erqisi river basin in northern Xinjiang, whose runoff\|producing area has higher mean elevation, also had no distinct change under the background of climate warming during 1990s; but the relationship of Xiaoqing river located in the east of Daqinng river, which has lower mean elevation of runoff\|producing area and little mountainous area precipitation, changed and the natural surface runoff decreased clearly under the background of climate warming during 1990s. (3) The relationship between natural precipitation and runoff of Urumqi river located in the north slope of middle Tianshan mountains in Northern Xinjiang also changed, and the natural surface runoff increased distinctly under the background of climate warming during 1980s～1990s in Northern Xinjiang. (4) The relationship between natural precipitation and runoff of Kaiken river located in the north of eastern Tianshan mountains changed and the natural surface runoff decreased under the background of climate warming during 1980s～1990s and influence of human activity. (5) The relationship between natural precipitation and runoff of Shuimo river located in the low mountain and hilly land of Urumqi outskirts also changed, and the runoff decreased under the background of climate warming for the recent 40 years and influence of human activity in spite of annual precipitation at Urumqi has increasing trend.