利用太平洋海表温度作西北太平洋热带气旋年频数预测

USING SST OF THE PACIFIC TO FORECAST THE FREQUENCY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC

本文利用1950～2000年全球月平均海表温度,计算分析海表温度与西北太平洋热带气旋频数之间的相关性,确定太平洋海表温度与西北太平洋热带气旋相关性好的海域作为预测模式的相关海区。从相关海区中选取代表格点海表温度资料构造出综合预测因子。利用综合预测因子建立一无线性和一元多项式非线性预测模式。经检验,两种模式预测效果较为理想。因此,利用太平洋海表温度与西北太平洋热带气旋频数的相关性建立预测模式作西北太平洋热带气旋频数预测是可行的。同时发现,经过以上方法建立的线性模式和非线性模式预测结果相差甚微,表明西北太平洋热带气旋频数与前一年太平洋某些海区海表温度经以上方法得到的综合预测因子之间线性相关性较为明显。

In this paper, we have calculated and analyzed the correlation coefficient between the sea-surface temperature (SST) and the frequency of tropical cyclone on the Northwest Pacific by using the global SST from 1951 to 2000, and have determined some sea areas where the correlation between the SST and the frequency of tropical cyclone on the Northwest Pacific is good. From these areas, the SST data on some representative points have been selected to form a aggregative forecasting factor. Using the factor, we have formed a simple linear model and a one-variable polynomial nonlinear model. The tests of the two models show that they are both fairly effective. At the same time, we find that the forecasted results of the two models are almost the same, which shows that the linear correlation between the frequency of tropical cyclone on the Northwest Pacific and the aggregative forecasting factor made of the SST of the Pacific is more obvious.