库兹涅茨比率的分解及其在我国地区差异分析中的应用

Decomposition of Kuznetz Ratio and Its Application in Regional Difference Analysis in China

区域差异及其变化是区域经济学和地理学重要的研究课题之一,通过探讨区域差异研究中不同模型之间的关系,结合中国的具体情况指出了基尼系数等指标在描述区域差异方面的局限性。考察了库兹涅茨比率的独特作用。通过对库兹涅茨比率的分解和计算,发现了导致中国区域差异变化的直接原因。改革开放20多年来我国区域差异的变化可以分为四个阶段,不同阶段差异的表现和内在原因不同,取决于低收入地区人口比例和高收入地区经济总量所占比例这两个因素的对比。西部大开发战略已经显现出一定的效果,未来国内区域差异有可能得到一定程度上的缓解。

The study of regional difference and its change is one of the most important research topics in regional economics and geography. In this paper, we first discussed the relationship among different models used in the study of regional difference, and pointed out the limitations of Gini coefficient and other indicators in the use of describing regional inequity, combining with China's specific conditions; then we examined the peculiar function of Kuznetz ratio. By decomposing and calculating Kuznetz ratio, we find out the direct causes that bring about the changes of China's regional difference. The results show that the changing process of China's regional difference since the reform and opening up can be divided into four stages, that is, the first stage is from the year 1978 to 1983, the second stage from 1984 to 1990, the third stage from 1991 to 1995, and the fourth stage from 1996 to now. Each of these four stages shows different extrinsic characteristics and intrinsic factors of regional difference, which is mainly due to the contrast value of two factors, that is, the population proportion of low-income areas and the GDP proportion of high-income areas. The details are as follows: 1) In the first stage, the population proportion of low-income provinces gradually declines and the income proportion of low-income provinces increases, and these two facts cause the general inequity decline a little. 2) In the second stage, the general inequity increases a little, which is mainly due to the vibration of two factors, factor A is the variation of inequity coefficient caused by the relative change of low-income population, factor B is the variation of inequity coefficient caused by the relative change of high-income population; 3) In the third stage, the general inequity increases rapidly, which is due to the increase of population proportion and income proportion of low-income provinces. 4) In the fourth stage, the general inequity declines a little, comparing with the index of the third stage, which is the result of the obvious increase of population proportion and the obvious decrease of income proportion of low-income provinces. The results also show that China's regional inequity in the future may be lessened to some extent. Practice has proved that the indicator of Kuznetz ratio has a unique function in describing the regional difference, but simply using this method might not have a good result and we should pay attention to its application combining with other methods.