20世纪90年代中国能源需求影响因素实证分析

Empirical Analysis of Influencing Determined Factors on Energy Demand of China in 1990s

利用生产函数和假定成本最小化建立了能源需求函数,并对1979～2000,1979～1992和1993～2000年中国能源需求函数进行了估计.根据估计的能源需求函数,计算了能源需求量对各影响因素的需求弹性以及各因素变动对能源需求量的贡献率.结果表明:1993年以后能源需求量的价格弹性增加,但是GDP增长和工资变动是影响90年代中期能源需求量变动的主要因素.并认为未来中国能源消费结构调整、耗能产业调整等需求因素将决定能源工业的发展,目前以能源供应为主导的能源政策将受到挑战.

With the production function and cost theory, the energy demand function was built, and the energy demand functions of China in 1979 - 2000, 1979-1992, and 1993 - 2000 were estimated. The elasticity of demand with respect to each variable and the contribution of each factor to the quantity of energy demanded were calculated. The result shows that the price elasticity of energy demand increases since 1993, but the increases in GDP and in wage are the main factors which affect the change of the quantity of energy demand in the midst of 1990s. The authors hold that the development of energy industry is determined by the changes of consumption structure of energy products and energy-intensive sectors in the future, the present energy polices based on the energy supply will be challenged.