在投资项目不确定性分析中盲数法与概率法的比较

Comparison of Blind Numbers and Probability Analysis Applied in the Uncertainty Analysis of Investment Projects

针对概率分析在投资项目不确定性分析中的缺陷,提出了盲数进行不确定分析法,经两种方法的比较得知盲数法具有以下优越性:以全新的角度对整个投资项目进行不确定性分析,对不确定性分析方法给予有益的补充;不仅给出投资项目能否盈利的标准,同时还给出项目最小和最大的盈利值,并且给出其实现的可能性.

The method of uncertainty analysis usi ng blind numbers is proposed to the limitation of probability analysis in the uncertainty analysis of investment projects.Compared with the probability analysis, the method of blind number has several a dvantages:this method carries out the uncertainty analysis of the whole investment project s in a completely new angle. It is a development of the uncertainty analysis. The stand ard of profit, the maximum and the minimum profits are suggested, and the probability o f its realization is also given.