经济制度变革还是产业结构升级——论中国经济增长的核心源泉及其未来改革的重心

Economic Institutional Reform or Industrial Structural Promotion?——on core factor of Chinese economic growth and focus of the future reform

本文利用回归和结构计量分析方法对经济制度变迁、二元经济转型与经济增长之间的关系进行了计量 ,详细分析出各种因素对中国经济增长的贡献 ,证明了中国高速经济增长的核心因素不仅在于渐进式经济制度改革 ,而且得益于转轨的“后发优势” ;二元经济转型引起的产业结构的升级无论从增长质量的改善上还是经济增长的边际贡献上都高于经济制度变迁 ;简单的资本非国有化改革在过去有弱化我国规模经济以及资本产出效率的作用 ,未来经济改革的核心应当从过去的所有制改革、市场化和开放化转向以二元经济转型为主导的产业结构调整之上。

This paper analyzes the relationship between Chinese institutional change, the transformation of dual economy and economic growth by regression method and structural method. Econometric analysis demonstrates that the core factor of Chinese economic high growth is the“post-development-advantage”, not the gradual economic institutional reform. Either from the improvement of growth quality or from marginal contribution, the contribution of industrial structural promotion which result from the transformation of dual economy is more than that of economic institutional change. The simple privatization is weakening the quality of economic growth. The industrial adjustment should substitute for institutional change and becomes the pillar of Chinese economic growth in the future.