摘要
China's coal dominated energy pattern has resulted in large amount of SO 2 emissions. Estimate of the sulfur related health damage cost is necessary to help perform systematic cost benefit analysis and set national energy and emissions control priorities. Current researches were confined to gaseous SO 2 in urban areas; however, secondary sulfate (SO 2- 4) particles can exert serious impact in a wider region. Based on the concept of “intake fraction', CALPUFF long range dispersion model and 180 sample emission sources, multiple regression equation was obtained with good correlation( r =0 85), which illustrates that populations were key parameters to determine intake fraction but source characteristics were insignificant. Based on the formula and the population distribution data, county level intake fractions were mapped for Hunan Province(range: 1 1×10 -6 -3 2×10 -6 ) of China. A combination of county level SO 2 emissions with the intake fractions yields a total 1 98 tons of sulfate(SO 2- 4) inhalation, and resulting total health damage cost to be 0 76(willingness to pay approach, WTP) or 0 16(human capital approach, HC) billion USD in 1997, about 2.1% or 0 45% of GDP in Hunan in 1997. Average health damage cost per ton of SO 2 emission is 930(WTP) or 200 USD(HC). The results demonstrated that more stringent regulation should be forced.
China's coal dominated energy pattern has resulted in large amount of SO 2 emissions. Estimate of the sulfur related health damage cost is necessary to help perform systematic cost benefit analysis and set national energy and emissions control priorities. Current researches were confined to gaseous SO 2 in urban areas; however, secondary sulfate (SO 2- 4) particles can exert serious impact in a wider region. Based on the concept of “intake fraction', CALPUFF long range dispersion model and 180 sample emission sources, multiple regression equation was obtained with good correlation( r =0 85), which illustrates that populations were key parameters to determine intake fraction but source characteristics were insignificant. Based on the formula and the population distribution data, county level intake fractions were mapped for Hunan Province(range: 1 1×10 -6 -3 2×10 -6 ) of China. A combination of county level SO 2 emissions with the intake fractions yields a total 1 98 tons of sulfate(SO 2- 4) inhalation, and resulting total health damage cost to be 0 76(willingness to pay approach, WTP) or 0 16(human capital approach, HC) billion USD in 1997, about 2.1% or 0 45% of GDP in Hunan in 1997. Average health damage cost per ton of SO 2 emission is 930(WTP) or 200 USD(HC). The results demonstrated that more stringent regulation should be forced.
基金
TheWorldBank(No.90 6 2 0 15 )
