船舶弃船决策系统分析

Analysis on the Decision System of Abandoning a Ship

当船舶发生海难事故后,船舶弃船时机的正确决策关系到船舶安全尤其是海上人命安全,文中试运用决策理论与技术以及系统理论分析了该决策系统的目标与准则、决策环境、决策体制与决策者、决策方案等要素,以及这些要素的相互联系,对弃船时机的正确选择做一个初步分析,为进一步研究奠定一些基础。

The correct opportunity decision of abandoning a ship has a bearing on the safety of a ship especially for the human life safety at sea when there is a shipwreck. This paper applies the theory and technology of the decision and the theory of system to analyzes the elements of purpose and principle, decision surroundings, decision system and decider, decision schemes, and their relationships. At last, it gives a primary anlysis on the correct decision for abandoning a ship for the further study.