多个气象场之间的联合REOF相关分析及场的预报模式

COMBINED REOF ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL MULTIFIELDS AND FORECASTING MODEL OF FIELD

本文将EOF分解应用于由不同性质,不同空间点数的气象变量场组成的联合场,并对特征场作Varimax正交旋转。试验表明,该方法对于分析多个气象变量场之间的空间相关特征十分有效。分析所取的变量包括长江中下游地区19个站的月平均气温,降水量以及欧亚500hPa月平均高度,本文用33年的资料系统地分析了三者之间的关系,得到了一些有意义的结果。 用联合REOF方法建立统计预报模式,以500hPa高度场作为因子预报同时段的地面气温场和降水场,独立试验证明,其效果比较理想。

This study use the Empirical Othogoaal Function analysis to the combined field which consist of sever 1 meteorological fields, and then make a varimax orthogonal rotation of eigenvectors. The study shows that this method is highly effec ive as used to analyse the spatial corrective features of meteorological multifields. Three variables anb 33 years monthly data was chosen to analyse the association befween monthly mean temperature, monthly precipitation of 19 observatory stations covering the middle-lower reaches of Changjiang river and Eurasian 500Pa monthly height. The results can be found significant. A statistical model to forecast was set by combined REOF method. The model can forecast surface temperature field and precipitation field using 500hPa height field as forecasting factor. The independence test shows the forecasting effect is ideal.