鄱阳湖区化疗和灭螺控制血吸虫病边际效果的分析和比较(英文)

ANALYZING AND COMPARING MARGINAL EFFECTS OF CHEMOTHERAPY AND MOLLUSCICIDING FOR SCHISTOSOMIASIS JAPONICA CONTROL IN POYANG LAKE REGION,CHINA

目的 分析和比较鄱阳湖区日本血吸虫病控制中化疗和灭螺措施的边际效果。方法 以化疗和灭螺药物的投入和其他变量为自变量,人群感染率的自然对数值为因变量,以逐步回归建立回归方程。利用回归方程分析血吸虫病控制中化疗和灭螺的当前和滞后边际效益,用方差分析对其进行比较。结果 经检验回归方程[ln(RATE_(KT))=0.101+0.924×ln(RATE_(KT1))-2.356E-04×PQT_(KT1)/RATE_(KT1)-1.18E-03×NICO_(KT)/RISKAREA_(KT)+1.781E-03×RISKAREA_(KT)+2.964E-02×LIVESTOCK_(KT)]具有统计学显著性意义,R^2=0.735,P<0.01。t检验表明,化疗和灭螺的当前和累积边际效果差异均有显著性。结论 灭螺的边际效益高于化疗,与在化疗上的投入相比,灭螺需要投入更多的资源。

Objective To analyze and compare marginal effects of chemotherapy and mollusciciding in schistosomiasis control in Poyang Lake Region, China. Methods Investment of chemotherapy and mollusciciding and other variables were used as independent variables and human infection rate as dependent variable to build a regression equation by step-wised regression method. The equation was utilized to analyze the current and lagged marginal effects of chemotherapy and mollusciciding in schistosomiasis control, and T-test was used to compare them. Results The regression equation [ln(RATEKT)=0. 101 + 0. 924 × ln(RATEKT-1)-2. 356E-04 × PQTKT-1 /RATEKT-1 - 1. 18E-03×NICOKT/RISKAREAKT + 1. 781E-03XRISKAREAKT + 2. 964E-02 X LIVESTOCKKT] was statistically significant, R2 equals 0.735, P<0. 01. T-test of the current and the accumulated marginal effects showed that there were differences between chemotherapy and mollusciciding and it implied that economic inefficiencv existed. Conclusion The marginal effect of mollusciciding was higher than that of chemotherapy, more resources was needed to invest on mollusciciding in contrast to chemotherapy.