地震灾害预测基本思维模式探讨

Discussion on the model of basic thinking in the earthquake prediction

地震灾害能否预测,如何实现有效预测,作者认为:地震作为一种自然界的客观存在,它的孕育、发生和发展过程必然遵循着一定规律。如果认识掌握了这一规律,就可以实现预测。加强震源研究是实现地震灾害预测的基础。提高预测效果的良好途径是预测期尺度与预测方法相对应。

Whether the earthquake hazard can be predicted or not, and how are we to achieve efficacious prediction In this paper, The author thinks that earthquake is a objective reality of nature world and the developing process of seismology, occurrence has inevitably a regularity If its regularity is recognized and mastered, the prediction would be achieved Strengthening research on seismic source is the basis to achieve earthquake hazard prediction Correspondence between yardstick of prediction term and prediction method is good way to improve prediction effect