风灾危险性评价—以塔里木盆地为例

Risk Assessment of Wind Disaster in Tarim Basin

考虑到大风灾害的发生与发展不仅与大风灾害天气有关 ,还与其影响区的自然及社会经济状况有关。因此 ,结合新疆的实际情况 ,以承灾体指数CH 和灾次指数ZC 的变化分析了塔里木盆地大风灾害的空间分异特点 ,发现ZC 的变化与CH 的变化在空间上存在明显的错位。在此基础上 ,构建出风灾灾害危险性评价模型 ,它是风沙致灾强度和承灾强度的综合反映。结果显示 :塔里木盆地最重要的工业城市库尔勒是风灾最危险的区域 ,其次危险的地区是 :喀什、库车、阿克苏、轮台和莎车等地 ,应予以高度重视。这与塔里木盆地大风灾害的实际基本一致 ,说明用危险性指数DX 来指针研究区的风沙灾害危险性是可行的。

In this paper, by analyzing and processing the statistical data, i.e. population, cultivated land, stock capacity and GDP for per unit land area are determined as the main factors to calculate the wind disaster bearing object C H, and the average gale disaster weather days per year as the wind disaster amount index Z C. Region analysis indicates that: the high value region of Z C and C H are not lapped in area coverage. Because the occurrence and development of the wind disaster is the results not only caused by the gale disaster but also related with the natural factor and economical factor of this area, we adopt Z C and C H as two main indexes to evaluate the risk assessment of wind disaster D X in Tarim Basin. The wind disaster risk assessment index D X can overcomes the shortage evaluated only by C H or Z C, because it can synthetic explain the character of the disaster amount and the disaster bearing object. The calculating and analyzing of D X can easily find the spatio temporal pattern of the wind disaster in Tarim Basin. The result showed that: the most risk area is one of the biggest city-Korla, and the second risk areas are Aksu, Shache, Kuqa and Kashi, such regions are the key regions of the prevention and control. At the same time, two highest value region of Z C only own the lowest D X for their economic level. The result is close to actual distribution condition of wind disaster in Tarim Basin.