尺度重整分析中周期性成分的影响

INFLUENCE OF CYCLIC COMPONENT ON RE-SCALED RANGE

目前,越来越多的研究者将尺度重整分析(R/S)引入古气候环境研究中。但在这些研究中很少提及周期性成分对尺度重整分析结果的影响。然而实际上,古气候环境演化往往显示出明显的周期性变化,而周期性成分的存在对尺度重整分析具有显著的影响。笔者列举了2个实例对此进行了说明。这些事实表明,在古气候环境研究中,没有考虑周期性成分影响的尺度重整分析的结果需要谨慎使用,有些可能需要做进一步修正。

Although recently re scaled range analysis (R/S analysis) has been increasingly used in paleo climatic and paleo environmental researches, the influence of cyclic component on the analysis is seldom discussed in these researches. However, with forcing mechanism of global paleo climate and paleo environment by the Earth orbit and solar activity, cyclic component is often discovered in many proxies of paleo climate and paleo environment. Cyclic component, which clearly displays long run dependence, exerts an important effect on re scaled range analysis of time series. Two examples are given in order to show this effect more clearly. It is suggested that in paleo climatic and paleo environmental researches, any conclusion based on the analysis of proxies should be used carefully if no influence of cyclic component is considered.