乘数法在艾滋病高危人群基数估计中的应用

Applications of Multiplier Method in Estimating the Size of Sub-populations at High Risk for HIV/AIDS

目的 探讨乘数法在艾滋病高危人群 (暗娼人群、静脉吸毒人群、同性恋人群 )基数估计中的运用。方法 运用乘数法对艾滋病高危人群进行估计。结果 乘数法对绵阳市市区女性商业性性工作者和乐山市市区静脉吸毒人群的估计分别为 5 0 80人和 170 3人 ,未能对成都市市区同性恋人群基数做出较好估计。结论 运用乘数法对艾滋病高危人群进行估计实施简易 ,结果可信 ,但需注意乘数法的适用人群和实施注意事项。

Objective To explore applications of multiplier method in estimating the size of sub-populations at high risk for HIV infection. Methods Multiplier method was applied to estimate the size of commercial sex workers in Mianyang downtown,injection drug users in Leshan downtown,and homosexual population in Chengdu. Results The sizes of the commercial sex workers and injection drug users were 5 080 and 1 703,respectively.The size of homosexual population could not be counted out. Conclusion Applications of multiplier method in estimating the size of sub-populations at high risk for HIV/AIDS is simple and credible.Suitable population and operation attention should be well considered in applications.