人口年龄结构、贸易差额与中国汇率政策的调整

The Demographics, Trade Balance and Exchange Rate Policy Adjustment in China

长期内,贸易差额与人民币汇率的相关性不显著。中国对外贸易出现持续顺差的重要原因是人口赡养率下降、国民储蓄增加及消费需求不振刺激了出口增长;青壮年人口比重上升,强化了中国劳动力成本低的优势和出口竞争力。未来15年内,国民高储蓄率和劳动力低成本的优势可望维持,对外贸易即使出现短期波动,顺差的大格局也不会发生根本变化。因此,汇率政策不必过于考虑汇率水平对进出口的影响,汇率的形成应更加市场化。

There exists a rather weak correlation between China's trade balance and the RMB exchange rate in the long term. China's continuous trade surpluses are mainly due to a high national saving, a weak domestic demand, and the advantage of low labor cost, resulting from the decreasing dependency ratio. Given a trend of trade surplus in the next 15 years, it is not necessary to closely peg the RMB rate policy to the foreign trade. A more flexible formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate is more important.