京津冀产业结构升级能带动人口疏导吗?——基于动态面板的实证分析

Does the Population Distributing by Industrial Transfer?——An Empirical Study on Coordinated Development of Industrial Structure and Employment Structure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

本文通过分析京津冀地区产业结构和就业结构的演进历程,并运用系统广义矩方法估计京津冀地区13个城市2004-2016年的动态面板模型,分析三次产业结构变动对就业影响的弹性系数,研究结果表明:北京市的产业结构和就业结构协调性最好;天津市次之;河北省的产业结构转型滞后于就业结构,并处在优化升级阶段。北京市向天津市和河北省疏导的第二产业和生产性服务业,就业弹性小,并不能有效带动人口的疏导。京津冀地区应根据各自的产业特色和地域优势,转变经济增长方式,使得产业结构更加合理和提高效率,使人口被动疏解变为主动迁移。

This paper analyzed the evolution process of industrial structure and employment structure in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei, The dynamic panel model was estimated by using the System Generalized Moment Method. The results show that the coordination of industrial structure and employment structure in Beijing is the best, followed by Tianjin, and Hebei is the worst. The transformation of industrial structure in Hebei lags behind the structure of employment and has been continuously improved. The second industry and producer service industry transferred from Beijing to Tianjin and Hebei provinces. Their employment elasticity is small. It can not effectively promote the transfer of population. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should change its mode of economic growth according to its own industrial characteristics and regional advantages, so as to make the industrial structure more rational and improve efficiency, change the passive transfer of population into active migration.