摘要
Traditionally, meteorological agencies collect, analyse, and share technical information about natural hazards with emergency services organisations and community members; often sending different warning products to each of these groups. For the general public, effective risk communication requires that technical information be translated to first gain attention and build understanding of risk, and then continue to be exchanged by all parties. The World Meteorological Organization and its partner agencies have recognised this need for translated information by moving away from warnings describing risks solely in terms of meteorological parameters and towards clearer messaging emphasizing significance and potential impacts. While the move towards more relatable weather warning messaging is a positive one, risk communication is a complex, dynamic and interactive process that is highly dependent on audience psychology, knowledge, skills, and capabilities; presenting at once difficulties and opportunities for agencies. Over recent years, advertisers, politicians and public safety advocates have all improved their messaging through the use of big data, psychology, social networking and behavioural economics principles, yet the links between these elements and weather risk communication are still relatively immature. This report aims to build links between weather forecasters, social scientists and related industries by outlining three conceptual models social scientists have developed to meet different challenges in the field of risk communication; the mental models approach, risk information seeking and processing, and the protective action decision making model. Recent issues and successes in the communication of tropical cyclone risk will then be examined and compared to these models, and future opportunities will be discussed.
Traditionally, meteorological agencies collect, analyse, and share technical information about natural hazards with emergency services organisations and community members; often sending different warning products to each of these groups. For the general public, effective risk communication requires that technical information be translated to first gain attention and build understanding of risk, and then continue to be exchanged by all parties. The World Meteorological Organization and its partner agencies have recognised this need for translated information by moving away from warnings describing risks solely in terms of meteorological parameters and towards clearer messaging emphasizing significance and potential impacts. While the move towards more relatable weather warning messaging is a positive one, risk communication is a complex, dynamic and interactive process that is highly dependent on audience psychology, knowledge, skills, and capabilities; presenting at once difficulties and opportunities for agencies. Over recent years, advertisers, politicians and public safety advocates have all improved their messaging through the use of big data, psychology, social networking and behavioural economics principles, yet the links between these elements and weather risk communication are still relatively immature. This report aims to build links between weather forecasters, social scientists and related industries by outlining three conceptual models social scientists have developed to meet different challenges in the field of risk communication; the mental models approach, risk information seeking and processing, and the protective action decision making model. Recent issues and successes in the communication of tropical cyclone risk will then be examined and compared to these models, and future opportunities will be discussed.
