基于多元logistic回归模型的城乡结合部规划实施驱动力分析

Driving Force of Planning Implementation in Rural-urban Fringe Area:Based on Multinomial Logistic Regression Model

研究目的:明确城乡结合部居民发展意愿及规划建设实施的驱动力,解析不同规划建设模式实施中的关键影响因素,为优化结合部土地利用,改进现有的规划建设实施模式提供参照。研究方法:问卷调查与logistic回归模型。研究结果:基于北京市城乡结合部区域的299份问卷调查,由个体差异、规划实施现状与规划实施意愿3类特征变量,15个指标变量构成自变量监测体系,将规划实施模式分为土地储备、村企合作、土地综合整治、自主改造以及整建制转居5个因变量,构建logistic回归模型,其中,住房类型、现状与规划是否相符、环境状况、拆迁安置补偿方式4个自变量指标显著影响城乡结合部规划实施。研究结论:土地综合整治是最受欢迎的城乡结合部规划建设模式;在城乡结合部发展与规划建设实施中,政府是社会意识中的主导力量,而民众受短期利益驱使,往往重视建设开发忽视耕地与生态保护,希望实现集体建设用地与城市国有土地的'同地同权'。

This paper aims to explore the development willingness of residents in rural-urban fringe area and the driving force of planning implementation,to find the key determinants in various planning and implementation models and to provide reference for optimizing land use and improving the pattern of planning implementation.Research methods of this article include questionnaire and logistic regression model.Research results:based on a survey in rural-urban fringe area in Beijing,the paper creates a monitoring system,which is composed of three types of characteristic variables(individual disparity,current situation and intention of planning implementation)and 15target variables.In the model,planning implementation patterns are sorted by five categories:land reserve,village-enterprise cooperation,comprehensive land renovation,independent regeneration by villagers,and organizational settlement.The logistic regressive model indicates that housing type,consistency of the current situation,environmental condition and resettlement compensation pattern have significant effects on planning implementation in rural-urban fringe area.Research conclusion:comprehensive land renovation is the most popular model of planning and construction;During the development and planning implementation process in rural-urban fringe area,government is the leading force of social consciousness.Driven by the short-term profits,residents usually attach great importance to development,yet ignore the importance of arable land and ecological protection,and they hope that collective construction land have the same rights as urban state-owned land.