土地整治促进农业现代化效应分析——基于通径分析法

Land Consolidation in Promoting AgriculturalModernization during the 12th Five-Year Plan:Based on Path Analysis

土地整治是我国实现'农业强、农民富、农村美'和新型农业现代化的重要支撑和保障之一。近年来,随着我国土地整治的建设规模和投入力度不断加大,土地整治对我国农业现代化水平的促进效应也越来越显著。本文以1999—2013年全国土地整治与农业现代化的相关数据为样本,采用通径分析法,探究土地整治各个要素与农业现代化之间的关系,着重考察了'十二五'时期(2011—2013年)土地整治对农业现代化水平的促进效应,并对'十三五'时期农业现代化水平进行了预测,从而为'十三五'时期编制全国土地整治规划及进一步提升土地整治效益提供政策建议。结果显示:(1)土地整治的面积、投资额、投入强度以及新增耕地面积等四个要素对农业现代化水平的促进效应分别为0.959、0.715、0.873和0.925。(2)进一步扩大土地整治覆盖范围、增加土地整治面积可能是现阶段促进我国农业现代化发展的关键所在。(3)若'十三五'时期土地整治规模相比于2013年土地整治规模提高一倍,则到2020年全国层面上可以达到基本实现农业现代化的要求。

Land consolidation is an important method to achieve new agricultural modernization in China.In recent years,especially since the 12th Five-Year Plan,the scope and scale of land consolidation continues to increase,which significantly promotes the agricultural modernization.Using data about land consolidation and agricultural modernization from 1999to 2013,this paper adopts the path analysis method to explore the relationship between agricultural modernization and land consolidation.This paper focuses on the effect of land consolidation in the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan(2011-2013)on agricultural modernization,and predicts the levels of agricultural modernization during the period of the 13th Five-Year Plan(2011-2013)with aims of preparing the national plan of land management in the 13th Five-Year Plan and enhancing the effectiveness of land management.